Tone from the Top: Inside Q2 2025’s Biggest Earnings Calls
- Joshua Dawe
- Aug 13
- 10 min read
In this post I’m breaking down the latest earnings from the market’s biggest players to hear what management is saying about opportunities and challenges. By looking at the largest companies in each of the 11 sectors of the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®) we can spot broad themes in how they see the road ahead. I’ll keep this post updated as more earnings roll in. Let’s jump in.
Main Highlights
GICS® Sectors: Company (*Market Capitalization)
Energy: ExxonMobil (~$453B)
Materials: Linde plc (~$223B)
Industrials: GE Aerospace (~$297B)
Consumer Discretionary: Amazon.com Inc (~$2,385B)
Consumer Staples: Walmart Inc (~$810B)
Health Care: Eli Lilly and Company (~$613B)
Financials: JPMorgan Chase & Co (~$807B)
Information Technology: Nvidia Corporation (~$4,455B)
Communication Services: Alphabet Inc (~$2,448B)
Utilities: NextEra Energy, Inc (~$148B)
Real Estate: Welltower Inc (~$110B)
Notes:
*- Market Cap as of post date.
- The 11 companies make up ~$12.8T total market cap (~24% of the 52.5T market cap of the S&P 500).
Top 3 Thematic Opportunities
AI-driven demand & digitalization
AI is both a product and a productivity lever: hyperscale AI services (Amazon/AWS, Alphabet), power demand from data centers (NextEra), AI/robotics + unified data/ERP (Exxon), advanced analytics in operations (Welltower’s WBS).
Why it matters: durable, multi-year capex and services cycles with operating efficiency tailwinds.
Backlogs, capacity build-outs, and visibility
Record or rising backlogs and long-term contracts underpin growth while companies expand capacity: GE ($151B backlog) and shop capacity; AWS ($195B) and Alphabet Cloud ($106B) backlogs; Linde sale-of-gas backlog; NextEra’s renewables/storage queue; Lilly’s incretin manufacturing ramp; Exxon’s upstream projects.
Why it matters: high revenue visibility + operating leverage as assets come online.
Energy transition monetization
Revenue from low-carbon solutions and policy supports: Exxon CCS/hydrogen and low-carbon fuels; Linde blue ammonia and U.S. incentives (45Q/bonus depreciation); NextEra renewables, storage, nuclear/SMRs; GE’s hydrogen/open-fan R&D.
Why it matters: new profit pools with tax credit support and long-dated customer contracts.
Top 3 Thematic Challenges
Physical bottlenecks: power, chips, parts, and people
AWS constrained by power/chips; GE component supply timing; NextEra skilled-labor and turbine build constraints; Lilly’s careful pacing due to capacity; real-asset scale-ups at Exxon/Welltower carry execution risk.
So what: demand can outstrip supply, pushing timelines and capping near-term upside.
Policy, regulatory, and legal overhangs
Tariffs/trade (Amazon), arbitration/policy risk (Exxon), Basel III capital and rule changes (JPMorgan), drug pricing/reimbursement & PBM actions (Lilly), permitting/tariff complexity (NextEra), legal/settlement costs (Alphabet).
So what: earnings and capital returns sensitive to outcomes outside management control.
Margin and pricing pressure amid macro volatility
Weak or volatile margins/pricing: chemicals oversupply and rare-gas softness (Linde), sequential margin dip in AWS (mix/SBC/depreciation/FX), rising expenses (JPMorgan; Exxon start-up and DD&A), FX headwinds and cyclical sectors (Alphabet ads, European industrial softness).
So what: cost inflation, FX, and mix can dilute operating leverage even in growth cycles.
1) Energy
Report Title: ExxonMobil Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Company: ExxonMobil
Report Issue Date: August 1, 2025
Opportunities:
Record upstream production, with Guyana and the Permian Basin as key high-return growth drivers.
Guyana’s 1.7 Mboe/d capacity target by 2030, with developments ahead of schedule and under budget.
Significant technology-driven recovery improvements in Permian assets, supporting long-term growth beyond 2030.
New downstream and chemicals projects (China Chemical Complex, Singapore Resid Upgrade, Fawley hydrofiner, Strathcona renewable diesel) adding >$3B in projected earnings by 2026.
Strong CCS growth with nearly 10 Mtpa third-party CO₂ offtake secured and operational projects.
Potential M&A leveraging technology, talent integration, and scale for high-value deals.
AI and robotics integration supported by a unified ERP system and comprehensive corporate data architecture.
Challenges:
Arbitration ruling on Guyana partnership contract, though operations unaffected.
Policy and market uncertainty slowing blue hydrogen investment decisions.
Prolonged weak chemical margins due to excess global capacity.
Rising corporate costs in 2025 from major project start-ups and higher DD&A.
Execution risks in scaling low-carbon businesses (hydrogen, lithium, low-carbon data centers).
2) Materials
Report Title: Linde plc Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Teleconference and Webcast Transcript
Company: Linde plc
Report Issue Date: August 1, 2025
Opportunities:
Record EPS ($4.09) and operating margin (30.1%) despite macro headwinds, supported by a robust 25.1% ROC.
Sale-of-gas project backlog at a record $7.1B, with 150% turnover in 4.5 years; three-quarters in the Americas, driven by electronics and clean energy.
Expansion in high-growth segments such as low-carbon ammonia (Blue Point Project) and space launch fuels, with ~$1B investment in space-related infrastructure over the next 2–3 years.
Healthy project pipeline in India and selective opportunities in APAC and Europe, particularly from long-term defense and infrastructure spending commitments in Germany and potential Ukraine rebuild.
Base CapEx investments and targeted M&A in packaged gases to enhance network density and growth.
Strong capital allocation discipline with $6.5B deployed YTD and low-cost capital access (CHF0.5B bonds at <1% yield).
Enhanced US tax incentives (bonus depreciation, 45Q) improving IRRs for capital projects, especially in low-carbon investments.
Challenges:
Base volume weakness (-2%) in EMEA and Australia, offsetting growth in resilient end markets.
Prolonged industrial slowdown in Europe, with no near-term catalysts for recovery and structural deindustrialization risks.
Pricing pressure in China due to helium oversupply and rare gas softness.
Helium pricing down high single digits, though Linde’s exposure is smaller than peers.
Electronics advanced materials unit facing temporary destocking from a major customer.
Economic uncertainty and FX volatility influencing guidance conservatism.
3) Industrials
Report Title: GE Aerospace Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Company: GE Aerospace
Report Issue Date: July 17, 2025
Opportunities:
Record revenue ($8.6B) and segment margin (25.6%) with strong aftermarket sales growth.
Commercial engine deliveries up 20% YoY, driven by LEAP and GEnx demand from fleet renewals and international traffic growth.
Backlog of $151B, including $124B in services, providing long-term earnings visibility.
Robust defense growth from F-35 and other military programs, supported by increased global defense budgets.
Expansion in engine overhaul and repair capacity to meet strong demand and extend asset life cycles.
Strategic investments in advanced propulsion (hybrid-electric, hydrogen combustion, open fan) positioning GE for next-gen aviation demand and emissions goals.
Strong cash generation enabling shareholder returns and continued R&D.
Challenges:
Supply chain constraints for certain components creating delivery timing risk.
Airline customers facing cost pressures from fuel and labor, potentially influencing order timing.
Rising R&D and capital expenditures to maintain technology leadership in next-gen propulsion.
Competitive intensity in the engine market from Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, and new entrants.
Defense program execution risks tied to production ramp schedules.
4) Consumer Discretionary
Report Title: Amazon.com Inc. Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Company: Amazon.com Inc.
Report Date: July 31, 2025
Opportunities:
Continued double-digit revenue growth (+12% YoY) with strong operating income expansion (+31% YoY).
Record Prime Day performance driving customer acquisition and sales for both Amazon and third-party sellers.
Expansion of premium brand selection (Nike, Dolce & Gabbana, Stella McCartney, etc.) and successful perishables pilot boosting repeat shopping.
Network rearchitecture delivering record delivery speeds and lower fulfillment costs, with expansion of same-day and next-day service to 4,000+ smaller U.S. cities by year-end.
Significant advertising revenue growth (+22% YoY) driven by broad media properties, new partnerships (Roku, Disney), and enhanced Amazon DSP capabilities.
AWS growth (+17.5% YoY) with record $195B backlog (+25% YoY) and leadership in generative AI services through Trainium2, Bedrock, AgentCore, and Kiro.
Project Kuiper progressing toward service launch with strong early enterprise and government customer interest.
Alexa+ rollout delivering higher engagement and potential for incremental device, retail, advertising, and subscription revenue.
Challenges:
Tariff policy uncertainty, particularly on China imports, with unclear cost absorption across Amazon, sellers, and consumers.
AWS supply constraints in power, chips, and components limiting ability to fully meet AI demand in near term.
Elevated CapEx requirements ($31.4B in Q2) for AWS infrastructure, fulfillment automation, and satellite initiatives.
Margin fluctuations in AWS (decline from 39.5% to 32.9% sequentially) due to higher stock-based compensation, depreciation, and FX headwinds.
Competitive intensity in cloud, AI, and retail from global hyperscalers and omnichannel retailers.
5) Consumer Staples
Report Title: Q2 2025 Earnings
Company: Walmart Inc.
Report Date: Aug 28, 2025
Opportunities
NA
Challenges:
NA
6) Health Care
Report Title: Eli Lilly Q2 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Company: Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)
Report Date: August 7, 2025
Opportunities
Strong Product Momentum: Revenue up 38% YoY driven by Mounjaro, Zepbound, Verzenio, and new launches; Mounjaro now US market leader in type 2 diabetes incretin market.
Pipeline Strength: Multiple positive Phase III readouts, including orforglipron (oral GLP-1), tirzepatide cardiovascular outcomes (SURPASS CVOT), and pirtobrutinib in CLL/SLL.
Oral GLP-1 Launch Potential: Orforglipron shows competitive efficacy and safety profile with once-daily convenience, expanding addressable market and enabling global production scalability.
Manufacturing Scale-Up: 1.6x increase in sellable incretin doses YoY with further capacity expansion planned; two new US sites to be announced.
Strategic M&A: Acquisitions of SiteOne (non-opioid pain asset) and Verve Therapeutics (gene therapies for cardiovascular disease).
Geographic Expansion: Mounjaro and Zepbound launches progressing in new markets (Mexico, Brazil, China, India) with controlled rollout to manage supply.
Positive Regulatory Milestones: FDA and CHMP progress for Kisunla, global launches for multiple drugs, and anticipated label expansions.
Challenges
Payer Access and PBM Actions: CVS exclusion of Zepbound from formulary impacting prescription growth rate in Q3; obesity drug coverage in US employer plans remains ~50–55%.
Competitive Landscape: Ongoing rivalry with Novo Nordisk in incretin space; cross-trial comparisons causing some debate on orforglipron’s competitive weight loss profile.
Pricing Pressures: Single-digit net price erosion expected; political scrutiny on US vs. EU price differentials.
Compounding & Generic Risks: Safety and market headwinds from compounded GLP-1s and potential Canadian semaglutide generics in 2026.
Capacity-Driven Demand Management: Need to pace international launches to avoid demand exceeding supply.
7) Financials
Report Title: JPMorgan Chase Q2 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Company: JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Report Date: July 15, 2025
Opportunities
Solid Earnings Performance: Net income of $14.7B, up 8% YoY, driven by strong consumer lending, record investment banking fees, and resilient markets revenue.
Investment Banking Recovery: M&A, ECM, and DCM fees all grew significantly YoY, with management expecting continued strength as corporate activity rebounds.
Wealth Management Growth: Assets under management increased to $4.4T with net inflows across products; expansion of digital wealth offerings.
Technology Investment: Continued buildout of AI-driven client solutions and fraud prevention tools aimed at improving operational efficiency and client engagement.
Credit Card & Consumer Lending Momentum: Robust spending trends and new co-brand partnerships driving higher loan growth and fee revenue.
Challenges
Net Interest Income Pressure: NII declined 2% sequentially due to lower loan yields and deposit repricing, with further pressure expected if rates decline.
Expense Growth: Noninterest expenses rose 6% YoY due to wage inflation, tech investments, and regulatory compliance costs.
Credit Normalization: Net charge-offs rose to 1.1%, with consumer delinquencies ticking higher, particularly in credit cards and auto loans.
Regulatory & Capital Requirements: Anticipated higher capital buffers from Basel III endgame and pending rule changes could constrain capital return.
Geopolitical & Macro Uncertainty: Management cited volatility from global elections, US fiscal trajectory, and persistent geopolitical risks as overhangs.
8) Information Technology
Report Title: Q2 2025 Earnings
Company: Nvidia Corporation.
Report Date: Aug 27, 2025
Opportunities
NA
Challenges:
NA
9) Communication Services
Report Title: Alphabet Inc. Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Company: Alphabet Inc.
Report Issue Date: July 23, 2025
Opportunities:
Rapid adoption of AI products, including Gemini 2.5 models, AI Overviews, AI Mode, and Veo 3, driving user engagement and commercial potential across Search, YouTube, and Cloud.
Cloud annual revenue run rate surpassing $50B with strong backlog growth ($106B), driven by high-value deals and demand for AI infrastructure.
Significant growth in YouTube Shorts monetization, CTV ad performance, and subscription services (YouTube Premium, Google One AI Pro/Ultra).
Expanding partnerships with enterprises (e.g., PayPal, Salesforce, LVMH, Target) leveraging AI capabilities to enhance operations and customer experience.
Continued innovation in multimodal Search, virtual try-on, and agentic AI tools, offering new monetization formats.
Challenges:
Tight AI compute supply environment expected to persist into 2026 despite elevated CapEx investments.
Higher operating expenses from legal settlements ($1.4B), increased depreciation from infrastructure buildout, and ongoing R&D investment.
Potential advertising growth headwinds in H2 2025 from election spend comps and lapping strong Financial Services vertical performance.
Volatility in foreign exchange rates may affect Q3 revenue.
10) Utilities
Report Title: NextEra Energy Q2 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Company: NextEra Energy, Inc.
Report Date: July 23, 2025)
Opportunities
Strong Financial Performance: Adjusted EPS up 9.4% YoY in Q2 and 9.1% for H1; FPL and Energy Resources delivering consistent growth.
Demand Surge: Nationwide electricity demand projected to grow more in the next decade than in the past three decades combined, driven by AI, reshoring manufacturing, residential, industrial, and oil & gas sectors.
Renewables & Storage Growth: 3.2 GW of new projects added to backlog in Q2; ~30% of backlog is storage, which offers immediate, low-cost capacity solutions.
Safe Harbor Positioning: Significant pre-investment secures tax credit eligibility through 2029 under OBBB legislation, creating competitive advantages over smaller developers.
Diverse Energy Portfolio: Active development in renewables, storage, gas, nuclear (including SMRs), and transmission, with over 10.5 GW committed to technology/data center customers.
Nuclear Opportunities: Progress toward potential restart of Duane Arnold facility and development of SMRs; strategic positioning in high-demand data center regions.
FPL Growth: Florida regulatory environment supports large-scale infrastructure investments, with plans to add over 8 GW solar and storage by 2029.
Challenges
Regulatory & Policy Risks: Complexities from executive orders, permitting rules for federal lands, tariffs, and trade actions require constant navigation.
Market Competition: Smaller developers may struggle, but competition remains intense in certain markets for renewables and gas assets.
Resource Constraints: Skilled labor shortages and supply chain pressures in gas turbine construction and large-scale generation projects could slow timelines.
Weather Variability: Q2 2025 wind resource at 97% of long-term average (down from 104% in Q2 2024), affecting renewable generation earnings.
11) Real Estate
Report Title: Welltower Inc. Q2 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Company / Issuer: Welltower Inc.
Report Date: August 4, 2025
Opportunities
Robust Financial Growth: Q2 normalized FFO per share up 21.9% YoY; 23.4% same-store NOI growth in seniors housing operating portfolio (11th consecutive quarter >20%).
Occupancy Gains: 420 bps YoY increase portfolio-wide, with UK seeing 600 bps; significant headroom in under-occupied, recently acquired assets.
Operating Platform Advantage: Welltower Business System (WBS) driving operational efficiencies, margin expansion, and scalability; over 8,000 site employees onboarded.
Capital Deployment Strength: $9.2B YTD acquisitions closed or under contract, 90% sourced off-market; focus on newer, under-optimized assets with upside potential.
Balance Sheet Strength: A-rated credit, net debt to adjusted EBITDA at record low 2.93x, $9.5B liquidity; flexibility to fund growth.
Margin Expansion Potential: Historically wide spread between revenue per unit and expense per unit; WBS initiatives improving even “uncontrollable” costs like utilities.
Industry Tailwinds: Aging demographics, limited new supply in affluent, high-barrier-to-entry markets, and favorable demand-supply backdrop for seniors housing.
Challenges
Operational Complexity: Transitioning large portfolios like Holiday by Atria (10,000 units) remains execution-intensive; NOI recovery expected in Q4 2025.
Non-Same-Store Drag: Recent acquisitions and developments carry lower occupancy and margins until stabilized.
Execution Risk at Scale: Sustaining double-digit NOI growth across a $100B+ market cap company requires flawless integration of acquisitions and WBS rollout.
Market Cyclicality: Some seasonal leasing slowdown in Q4; competitive dynamics could tighten as industry occupancy approaches pre-COVID highs.
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