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Fed Cuts Rates, But Not Enough for Trump

  • Writer: Joshua Dawe
    Joshua Dawe
  • Sep 21, 2025
  • 3 min read

Welcome to this week's market rundown. I’m covering key news, what’s on the economic calendar, how markets have been moving. Whether you’re trading or just keeping score, here’s what you need to know to stay one step ahead.




Indonesia’s Balancing Act: Indonesia rolled out another stimulus package, including rice for low-income households. Protests over political perks continue, though they’re less intense than the deadly unrest seen recently. In a surprise move, the central bank cut interest rates, catching markets off guard.


AfD Gains Ground in Germany: The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged in local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, winning 14.5% of the vote compared to just 5% in 2020. That put it ahead of the Greens and in third place overall, while the Christian Democrats held steady at 33%.


Trump’s Royal Welcome: Donald Trump made a high-profile state visit to Britain, becoming the first U.S. president to receive two official trips to the monarchy. King Charles III rolled out the red carpet with lavish pageantry, and the visit coincided with big investment announcements from U.S. firms like Microsoft and OpenAI.


Fed’s Rate Cut Drama: The Federal Reserve cut rates by a quarter point, lowering its benchmark range to 4%–4.25%. Trump, who has been pushing hard for steeper cuts, saw his new appointee Stephen Miran immediately dissent, calling for a half-point move. Lisa Cook also kept her voting seat after a court ruling blocked her removal.


Alphabet Joins the $3 Trillion Club: Google’s parent company Alphabet hit a $3 trillion market cap, joining a small group of tech giants at the top. Nvidia has surged past $4 trillion, Microsoft has briefly crossed that level, and Apple sits at $3.5 trillion. Alphabet’s boost came after a judge allowed Google to keep Chrome in an antitrust case.


TikTok Transfer Talks: Trump announced a deal to shift TikTok’s U.S. assets to American ownership. ByteDance, TikTok’s parent, once again got an extension on its divestment deadline, giving negotiators more time to iron out the details and avoid a shutdown in the U.S.



Calendar


  • Previous Week

    • Inflation

      • Canada (Aug): 1.9% YoY vs 2.0% consensus → slightly softer than expected.

      • UK (Aug): 3.8% YoY vs 3.8% consensus → exactly in line.

      • Japan (Aug): 2.7% YoY vs 2.8% consensus → a touch below forecast.

    • Unemployment

      • UK (Jul): 4.7% vs 4.7% consensus → right on target, no surprise.

    • Interest Rates

      • Canada (Sep): 2.5% vs 2.5% consensus → in line, but cut from 2.75% previously.

      • US (Sep): 4.25% vs 4.25% consensus → matched expectations, down from 4.5%.

      • UK (Sep): 4% vs 4% consensus → steady, unchanged.

      • Japan (Sep): 0.5% vs 0.5% consensus → steady, unchanged.


  • This Coming Week

    • Inflation

      • France (Sep prelim): 0.9% vs 1.0% forecast → softer.

      • Italy (Sep prelim): 1.6% vs 1.7% forecast → softer.

      • Germany (Sep prelim): 2.2% vs 2.3% forecast → softer.

      • Euro Area (Sep flash): 2.0% vs 2.2% forecast → softer.

    • Unemployment

      • US (Sep): 4.3% vs 4.3% forecast → in line.

    • Interest Rates

      • Australia (RBA, Sep): 3.6% vs 3.6% forecast → in line, no move.


  • Previous Week: No major earnings last week.


  • This Coming Week: The earnings calendar is quiet.



Market Movement


Equities ended mostly higher on the week, with the SP500 Index up about 1.2% WoW. Short positioning is picking up, especially in the VIX, while Nvidia paused after its recent run.


Rates pushed higher across the curve. Fed fund futures now price in a 78% chance of three more cuts by year-end. The US10Y Yield and 2-year bounced after the Fed’s move, credit spreads narrowed, and shorts in the 2-year continue to build.


Forex a mixed bag with the Aussie was the weakest currency on the week, while the Dollar Index stayed flat. Futures positioning leans net bearish on the dollar. USDJPY shorts are piling in as Japanese inflation lags the U.S. Meanwhile, USDSGD finished flat, with rate differentials still favoring the USD.


Commodities broadly steady, with gold up 1% and most others little changed.


Crypto under pressure, with Dogecoin and Ethereum both down about 3%.




 
 
 

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