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Powell Drops a Dovish Signal at Jackson Hole

  • Writer: Joshua Dawe
    Joshua Dawe
  • Aug 25
  • 2 min read
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Welcome to this week's market rundown. I’m covering key news, what’s on the economic calendar, how markets have been moving. Whether you’re trading or just keeping score, here’s what you need to know to stay one step ahead.




Powell Hints at Rate Cuts: Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled rate cuts could resume as soon as September. Futures markets see about an 80% chance of a move, though traders remain cautious given mixed economic data.


Tech Stocks Take a Hit: US tech shares slumped as investors questioned AI’s payoff. The NASDAQ slid 2.5% for the week, with Nvidia down 2.8% and Palantir tumbling nearly 12%.


Air Canada Strike Resolved: A three-day strike by flight attendants ended after a new pay deal. The agreement compensates attendants for boarding time, following disruptions that grounded hundreds of flights and hit half a million travelers.


Pop Mart Mania: Labubu dolls powered Pop Mart’s profits 400% higher in the first half of 2025. With global demand surging, the Chinese toymaker is now valued at over three times the combined worth of Mattel and Hasbro.



Calendar


  • Previous Week

    • Canada (Jul, YoY): Inflation cooled slightly to 1.7% from 1.9%.

    • UK (Jul, YoY): Inflation edged higher to 3.8% from 3.6%.

    • Japan (Jul, YoY): Inflation eased to 3.1% from 3.3%.


  • This Coming Week

    • US (Q2, 2nd estimate): Previous reading showed a contraction of -0.5%, with consensus expecting a rebound of 3%.

    • Canada (Q2): Annualized growth previously at 2.2%, with quarter-on-quarter at 0.5%.

    • France (Aug, YoY prelim.): Previously 1%, consensus 1.1%.

    • Italy (Aug, YoY prelim.): Previously 1.7%, consensus 1.8%.

    • Germany (Aug, YoY prelim.): Previously 2%, consensus 2.1%.


  • Previous Week: Walmart’s results came in softer than expected.


  • This Coming Week: Looking ahead, all eyes will be on Nvidia, whose earnings could set the tone for the S&P 500. Investors will also be watching a busy slate of Chinese earnings, including Alibaba and PetroChina.



Market Movement


Equities

  • Movement: CSI 300 jumped 4% while the Nikkei 225 slipped 2%.

  • SP500 Index: Finished the week mostly flat but still pressing all-time highs. Powell’s Jackson Hole speech boosted confidence in rate cuts, and with VIX shorts piling in, the market doesn’t seem worried about volatility right now.


Rates

  • Movement: Japan’s 10-year yield climbed over 3%, while Europe’s 10-year fell more than 2%.

  • Fed Fund Futures: Markets are pricing in three cuts by the Dec 12 meeting with an 82% chance, and even an 18% chance of four cuts.

  • US10Y Yield: Flat on the week. The 2-year is the one to watch as it edges closer to breaking below prior lows.


Forex

  • Movement: Most pairs were flat WoW, though Friday’s Jackson Hole speech stirred intraday swings.

  • Dollar Index: Unchanged on the week. Futures positioning has tilted slightly long USD. Keep an eye on the 2-year yield for USD direction.

  • USDJPY: Flat overall. Narrowing yield differentials point to potential JPY strength. Shorts keep building, while longs saw a small rebound.

  • USDSGD: Ended the week flat. Technicals still look weak, though carry remains firmly above 2%.


Commodities

  • Movement: Oil had a strong week, with most contracts rising more than 3%.


Crypto

  • Movement:  Broadly higher, with Ethereum and Solana up about 8% WoW, while Bitcoin slipped 2%.




 
 
 

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