Trump’s Tariff Trouble: Court Deals Blow to Trump’s Trade War
- Joshua Dawe
- Sep 10
- 3 min read
Welcome to this week's market rundown. I’m covering key news, what’s on the economic calendar, how markets have been moving. Whether you’re trading or just keeping score, here’s what you need to know to stay one step ahead.
China’s Show of Strength: Xi Jinping staged Beijing’s largest military parade yet, showing off lasers, nukes and even robot wolves. The event, attended by leaders like Putin and Kim Jong Un, was a clear signal of China’s challenge to Western dominance. Kim even brought his teenage daughter, fueling speculation about her future role.
Indonesia in Turmoil: Jakarta erupted into its worst riots in decades after protests over political perks turned deadly. A motorbike-taxi driver was killed by police, sparking nationwide unrest that left ten people dead and more than 1,200 detained.
Bond Market Stress Test: Global bond yields spiked, signaling mounting investor concerns over inflation and government debt. America’s 30-year yield nearly hit 5%, Japan hit a record 3.29%, and Britain’s 30-year gilt rose to its highest since 1998. Rising yields mean pricier borrowing for governments everywhere.
Trump’s Tariff Trouble: A US appeals court struck down most of Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, ruling that presidential powers don’t extend that far. While his steel and aluminum duties remain intact, the administration now has until mid-October to appeal to the Supreme Court.
Japan’s Leader Steps Down: Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru resigned after back-to-back electoral defeats cost his party control of parliament. Though he had resisted stepping aside, pressure within the ruling LDP grew too strong. He will serve as caretaker until a new leader is chosen.
Calendar
Previous Week
GDP
Australia Q2 GDP QoQ: Actual 0.6% vs Consensus 0.5% (beat). Growth doubled from Q1’s 0.3%, showing stronger momentum.
Inflation
Euro Area Aug CPI Flash YoY: Actual 2.1% vs Consensus 2.0% (slightly hotter). Price pressures remain above target.
Unemployment
US Unemployment Rate (Aug): Actual 4.3% vs Consensus 4.3% (in line), ticking up from 4.2%.
Canada Unemployment Rate (Aug): Actual 7.1% vs Consensus 7.0% (slightly weaker), rising from 6.9%.
Interest Rates
No major central bank rate decisions last week.
This Coming Week
GDP
UK (Jul): Previous +0.4% MoM → Consensus +0.1%. Markets expect a sharp slowdown in growth.
Inflation
China (Aug CPI): Previous 0.0% YoY → Consensus -0.2%. Economists look for renewed deflationary pressure.
US (Core CPI Aug YoY): Previous +3.1% → Consensus +3.1%. No easing expected in underlying price pressures.
Interest Rates
ECB (Sep): Previous 2.15% → Consensus unchanged. Markets anticipated a steady hand.
Previous Week: No major earnings last week.
This Coming Week: The earnings calendar is quiet.
Market Movement
Equities
Movement: TSX gained 1.5% WoW, while the CSI300 pulled back after strong recent gains.
SP500 Index: Flat on the week. Nvidia still easing, while other big tech names like Google are on the move. VIX shorts remain elevated.
Rates
Movement: US10Y yield dipped toward 4%, while the SG10Y climbed about 1%.
Fed Fund Futures: Markets are pricing in three cuts by the Dec 12 meeting, with odds at 87%.
US10Y Yield: US10Y slid off 4% WoW. Both the 2Y and 10Y moved lower, with the 2Y hitting fresh lows. Credit spreads widened slightly.
Forex
Movement: Most pairs stayed flat WoW. USDCAD rose about 60bps.
Dollar Index: Unchanged WoW. Futures positioning shows USD longs at 54k contracts. Lower US yields remain the key driver to watch.
USDJPY: Flat WoW. Yield differentials continue to compress. Shorts are adding, making sentiment worth watching.
USDSGD: Flat WoW. Yield spreads are pushing higher, with carry now above 2%.
Commodities
Movement: Gold keeps pushing all-time highs, while crude sold off sharply.
Crypto
Movement: Mostly higher on the week, except Ethereum which slipped nearly 4%, likely on profit-taking after strong gains.
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