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Crypto Rockets Higher, But Can Risk Sentiment Hold?

  • Writer: Joshua Dawe
    Joshua Dawe
  • Jul 13
  • 3 min read

Updated: Jul 17

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Welcome to this week's market rundown. I’m covering key news, what’s on the economic calendar, how markets have been moving, and what trades I’m tracking right now. Whether you’re trading or just keeping score, here’s what you need to know to stay one step ahead.




  • Musk’s “America Party” Shakes Things Up: Elon Musk launched the America Party to challenge Republicans who backed Trump’s tax cuts, sparking a sharp rebuke from Trump and spooking Tesla investors enough to send its stock sliding.

  • Trump Pledges More Weapons to Ukraine: After a call with Volodymyr Zelensky, Donald Trump promised fresh air-defence weapons for Ukraine, reversing a Pentagon suspension just a week ago. For now, Zelensky has Trump’s backing as Trump voices frustration with Putin. Hours later, Russia launched its biggest drone attack yet, hitting Ukraine with 728 drones.

  • Trump Extends Trade Talks, Keeps Tariff Threat Alive: Donald Trump pushed the trade deal deadline from July 9th to August 1st, warning countries like Japan and South Korea they could face 25% tariffs if talks fail, while Britain and Vietnam are the only ones with frameworks in place so far.

  • Nvidia Becomes a $4 Trillion Powerhouse: Nvidia’s market value skyrocketed to $4 trillion, the first company ever to hit that mark, as insatiable demand for its cutting-edge AI chips drove its stock up 45% since May.



Calendar


  • Economic:

    • Previous Week: China edged out of deflation with inflation at 0.1%. Canada’s jobless rate dipped to 6.9%.

    • This Coming Week: Watch for China’s GDP, plus fresh inflation reads from the US and Japan. Big clues for growth and the central bank moves ahead.

  • Earnings:

    • Previous Week: Nothing notable.

    • This Coming Week: Banks reporting with JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America.

  • Tariffs: August 1st deadline.



Market Movement


  • Equities: Singapore’s Straits Times index stood out last week, climbing around 2.0% and leading regional markets higher. On the flip side, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was the laggard, slipping about 0.5%.

  • Rates: Japanese bond yields saw a solid move, rising 7.0% and getting closer to overtaking Chinese rates.

  • Forex: The yen had a bad week, weakening roughly 2.0% against the dollar, while the pound gave up about 1.0%.

  • Commodities: Most energy contracts ended higher, with heating oil up around 3%. Low sulphur gasoil was the main outlier, down about 4% on the week.

  • Crypto: Big fireworks in crypto. XRP exploded 24.0% higher, Ethereum rallied 18.0% and Bitcoin kept the momentum going with a 9.0% gain.



Watchlist


  • Fed Fund Futures: Traders still pricing in three rate cuts by year-end.

  • SP500 Index: Flat WoW. Flashing overbought signals with RSI at 83 and a near 2 standard deviation move. Nvidia’s strength keeps the index near all-time highs while the VIX sits low around 16. Shorts are creeping higher, so some hedging at these levels makes sense.

  • US10Y Yield: Up 1.6% on the week after bouncing off its 100-day moving average. The 2s and 10s are moving together, and fund managers keep adding shorts, betting yields have more upside. Credit spreads keep tightening, showing credit markets remain calm.

  • Dollar Index: Up 0.7% last week. Still looks oversold on the charts, with aggregate futures positioning staying net short but seeing some covering. The dollar mostly moved with US yields.

  • USDJPY: Up 2.0% on the week. Broke through its 20-day moving average, showing fresh upside momentum as big long positions unwind.

  • USDSGD: Up 0.5%. Technicals look deeply oversold, so a bounce could be in the cards. Its regression to the DXY is near decade lows, hinting at catch-up potential if the dollar stays strong.




 
 
 

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