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From Big Oil Blues to AI Booms

  • Writer: Joshua Dawe
    Joshua Dawe
  • Aug 10
  • 3 min read
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Welcome to this week's market rundown. I’m covering key news, what’s on the economic calendar, how markets have been moving. Whether you’re trading or just keeping score, here’s what you need to know to stay one step ahead.




America Slaps India with Steep Tariffs Over Russian Oil: The US is cranking up pressure on India for buying Russian oil, with President Trump calling the trade “fuel for the war” in Ukraine. Starting August 27, tariffs on certain Indian goods will jump to 50%. India says it is being unfairly targeted, pointing to Europe’s continued trade with Russia. The Kremlin insists countries should choose their own partners.


Trump Eyes Putin and Zelensky Talks as Tensions Spike: Trump plans meetings with both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky after a trip to Moscow by his special envoy. He is warning Russia of heavy sanctions unless it moves toward ending the war. In a show of force, he ordered nuclear submarines into “appropriate regions” after sharp words from Russian official Dmitry Medvedev, who called Trump’s ultimatums “a step towards war.”


BLS Chief Fired Amid Jobs Data Controversy: Trump ousted Erika McEntarfer, head of the Bureau of Labour Statistics, accusing her without evidence of skewing jobs data. July saw 73,000 new jobs, but May and June’s figures were revised down by 258,000, marking the weakest months since early 2020. Economists are puzzled by the drop and worry the firing could shake trust in federal statistics.


Big Oil Feels the Profit Pinch: BP’s second quarter profits slid 14% from last year, and the slump was not unique. Chevron and ExxonMobil reported their weakest second quarter earnings in four years, while Shell and Total Energies also saw steep declines. Lower energy prices and softer demand are weighing on the sector.


OpenAI’s Valuation May Soar to $500 Billion: OpenAI is reportedly exploring a share sale for current and former employees that would value the company at $500 billion, up from $300 billion in its last round. The leap underscores surging investor interest in AI despite broader market caution.



Calendar


  • Previous Week

    • China Inflation: Flat at 0.0% YoY in July, signaling persistent disinflation.

    • Canada Unemployment: Steady at 6.9%, matching forecasts.

    • BoE Rates: Held at 4.0% as policymakers watch growth and inflation.

  • This Coming Week

    • UK Q2 GDP YoY: Previous 1.3%, Consensus 0.7%

    • US Core CPI YoY (July): Previous 2.9%, Consensus 3.0%

    • UK Jobless Rate (June): Previous 4.7%, Consensus 4.7%


  • Previous Week: Berkshire Hathaway, Palantir, and Eli Lilly all topped earnings expectations.

  • This Coming Week: Tencent steps into the earnings spotlight next week.



Market Movement


Equities

  • Movement: All major indices finished the week higher except the UK100. Euro Stoxx 50 led with a gain of over 3.5%.

  • SP500 Index: Up about 2.4% week-on-week and still pressing all-time highs. Nvidia and the big tech cohort remain in control. Notably, VIX shorts have been climbing as fund managers bet against volatility.


Rates

  • Movement: Most government bond yields moved between -2% and +2% week-on-week, except Singapore’s 10-year up ~8% and Japan’s 10-year up ~5%. Singapore’s yield looks poised to challenge China and Japan’s levels.

  • Fed Fund Futures: Markets now see four rate cuts by year-end, with odds near 50%.

  • US10Y Yield: Up about 1.6% on the week, sitting mid-range technically and searching for direction. Fund managers are adding shorts, signaling expectations for higher yields. Credit spreads have edged up slightly.


Forex

  • Movement: Mostly a week of dollar weakness, with GBPUSD the standout, up about 1.5%.

  • Dollar Index: Down 0.9% on the week as aggregate shorts eased. JPY longs and GBP longs both trimmed positions.

  • USDJPY: Flat week-on-week, though yield differentials are rising. Long positions are being cut while shorts build quickly.

  • USDSGD: Down 0.3% on the week. Rate differentials continue to climb, with the carry sitting near 2%.


Commodities

  • Movement: Crude tumbled 4–5% on the week, while gold and iron ore finished in the green.


Crypto

  • Movement:  A standout week with Ethereum and Dogecoin both surging more than 20%.




 
 
 

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