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Global Growth Gets a Boost: IMF Upgrades 2025 Outlook

  • Writer: Joshua Dawe
    Joshua Dawe
  • Aug 3
  • 3 min read
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Welcome to this week's market rundown. I’m covering key news, what’s on the economic calendar, how markets have been moving, and what trades I’m tracking right now. Whether you’re trading or just keeping score, here’s what you need to know to stay one step ahead.




  • Taiwan Trip Delayed Amid US-China Tensions: Reports suggest Taiwan’s president postponed a Paraguay visit after being denied a US transit stop to avoid angering China during trade talks. Taiwan’s government denied the reports, saying no trip was planned soon.

  • Tariffs Hit Corporate Earnings: Mercedes-Benz, Ford and Procter & Gamble reported steep losses and rising costs from tariffs. Ford lost $800m in Q2, while P&G warned it will raise prices to offset $1bn in trade levies.

  • IMF Lifts Global Growth Forecast: The IMF raised its 2025 global GDP growth forecast to 3%, citing milder US tariffs and a weaker dollar. It now sees US growth at 1.9% and China’s at 4.8%, both higher than its April estimates.

  • Aid Struggles in Gaza: Israel paused military operations to allow limited aid into Gaza and conducted food airdrops alongside Jordan, Egypt and the UAE. The UN and WHO warned the relief was insufficient as malnutrition worsened, while Donald Trump acknowledged “real starvation.” Ceasefire hopes faded.

  • Trump Tightens Russia Deadline: Donald Trump moved up his deadline for Russia to advance peace talks with Ukraine to August 8th, warning of harsh sanctions. Meanwhile, a Russian strike on a Ukrainian prison killed 16 people.

  • Border Truce in Southeast Asia: Cambodia and Thailand agreed to end recent border clashes that killed at least 40 and displaced hundreds of thousands, though Thailand accused Cambodia of already violating the ceasefire.



Calendar


  • Economic

    • Previous Week

      • GDP Growth Rates

        • Eurozone (EA): Q2 GDP slowed to 0.1% QoQ (prev. 0.6%) and 1.4% YoY (prev. 1.5%), both just above consensus.

        • US: Q2 GDP rebounded strongly to 3% QoQ annualized (prev. -0.5%), beating the 2.4% consensus.

        Interest Rate Decisions

        • US Fed: Held rates at 4.5%, as expected.

        • BoC (Canada): Kept rates unchanged at 2.75%, in line with consensus.

        • BoJ (Japan): Maintained its rate at 0.5%.

        US Non-Farm Payrolls

        • Payrolls rose 73K (prev. 14K) but missed the 110K forecast.

        • Unemployment ticked up to 4.2% (prev. 4.1%), matching consensus.

    • This Coming Week

      • Interest Rate Decisions

        • BoE (UK): Expected to hold rates at 4.25%.

      • Unemployment

        • Canada: Jobless rate forecast to stay at 6.9%.


  • Earnings

    • Previous Week: Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon all topped earnings estimates, boosting sentiment around tech. Meanwhile, big oil was mixed with Chevron missing expectations while Exxon outperformed, reflecting diverging performance in the energy sector.

    • This Coming Week: Berkshire Hathaway and Eli Lilly are the key names to watch in next week’s earnings lineup



Market Movement


  • Equities

    • Movement: Major indices finished lower this week, led by the EuroStoxx 50 sliding 3.5%.

    • SP500 Index: Fell 2.4% WoW. Futures show a slight build in short positioning. Big tech traded mostly flat to lower, except Meta, which is pushing toward an all-time high. The VIX spiked to 20, signaling rising volatility.

  • Rates

    • Movement: Bond yields saw sharp declines, with the CA10Y and US10Y down roughly 4%, driven by weak Friday jobs data and a market shift toward potential Fed dovishness.

    • Fed Fund Futures: Markets are now pricing in four rate cuts by year-end, with odds sitting near 50%.

    • US10Y Yield: Dropped 3.9% WoW, driven by weak jobs data, with the 2Y following lower. Credit spreads remain stable.


  • Forex

    • Movement: The AUD, EUR, and GBP extended their slide, each down 1.25% to 1.5% WoW, as the US dollar rallied.

    • Dollar Index: Gained 1.6% WoW, continuing its rebound from recent lows on technicals. Positioning shows reduced length in currencies like JPY and GBP, favoring USD. The dollar still looks undervalued relative to US rates.

    • USDJPY: Flat on the week, but fund managers are trimming longs and adding shorts. Narrowing yield differentials lend support to the JPY.

    • USDSGD: Rose 0.6% WoW, tracking the Dollar Index higher. Technicals suggest more upside potential.

  • Commodities

    • Movement: A mixed week, with crude up 2–3%, while gasoil pulled back 4–5%.

  • Crypto

    • Movement: A tough stretch for crypto, with most coins falling over 5% WoW. Doge led losses, plunging 18%.




 
 
 

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