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Nuclear to Nvidia: Markets Ride the Risk-On Wave

  • Writer: Joshua Dawe
    Joshua Dawe
  • Jun 29
  • 3 min read

Updated: Jul 17

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Welcome to this week's market rundown. I’m covering key news, what’s on the economic calendar, how markets have been moving, and what trades I’m tracking right now. Whether you’re trading or just keeping score, here’s what you need to know to stay one step ahead.




  • Middle East Ceasefire Holds — For Now: After a tense 12-day conflict, a fragile truce between Iran and Israel is holding, thanks largely to Donald Trump’s intervention and a show of American force. The cost was heavy — dozens dead in Israel and hundreds in Iran — but Israel emerged with greater regional clout, and nuclear talks with Iran may be next.

  • Nvidia Back on Top: Nvidia’s shares soared to a fresh record, pushing its market cap near $3.8 trillion. Earlier investor jitters over AI spending have faded, and the chip giant is once again the poster child for tech market optimism.

  • Oil Markets Whipsawed by Conflict: Oil prices spiked on fears Iran would block the Strait of Hormuz but quickly dropped as the threat eased. Trump leaned on American producers to boost supply and bring down prices, echoing his “drill, baby, drill” mantra.

  • Fed Stands Firm Despite Trump Pressure: Jerome Powell made clear the Fed won’t rush into rate cuts, likely holding off until September to gauge the impact of tariffs. Meanwhile, rumors swirl that Trump wants to replace Powell before his term ends in 2026.




  • Previous Week: Final Q1 US GDP growth came in weaker than expected at -0.5% QoQ, missing the consensus of -0.2%.

  • This Week: The US unemployment rate for June is expected to hold steady at 4.2%, suggesting the labor market remains resilient despite softer growth. Flash estimates show EU inflation ticking up to 2% YoY for June.



Market Movement


  • Equities: Stocks surged this week, with the S&P 500 up 3.4% and Japan’s Nikkei jumping 4.5% as investors shrugged off macro worries.

  • Rates: Yields rose in Japan and Europe, while US and Singapore rates edged lower, reflecting mixed economic signals and policy expectations..

  • Forex: The USD saw broad selling pressure, with GBP/USD up 2% and EUR/USD up 1.6% — the biggest movers as traders bet on softer US data..

  • Commodities: Commodities got hammered, led by oil — Brent fell 13% WoW as the Middle East ceasefire calmed supply fears. Gold dipped too, tracking the risk-on mood..

  • Crypto: Crypto traded higher this week, with Solana outperforming — up 7% WoW — as risk appetite spilled into digital assets..



Watchlist


  • Fed Fund Futures: Traders are pricing in three rate cuts by year-end, a big shift that’ll need watching as data rolls in. Any surprises in inflation or growth could upend this dovish view.

  • SP500 Index: The S&P 500 rose another 3% WoW, pushing fresh all-time highs. Nvidia is leading the charge — up about 70% from recent lows — while the VIX sits calm around 16, signaling steady risk appetite.

  • US10Y Yield: The US 10-year yield slipped 2% WoW, with the 2s and 10s moving lower together. One caution flag: credit spreads are starting to widen a touch — worth keeping an eye on for cracks in risk sentiment..

  • Dollar Index: The DXY fell 1.3% WoW, breaking below 100. Futures positioning is heavily short, near -144k lots, hinting at more downside — though linear regressions suggest it’s looking a bit oversold versus yields, so watch for a snapback.

  • USDJPY: USDJPY dropped 1% WoW as rate differentials keep shrinking, giving the yen more tailwind. Positioning is very long JPY though, so a bout of profit-taking could come soon. Fair value models point closer to 130 if 10Y rate gaps keep narrowing.




 
 
 

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