The Tariff Tempest: Global Trade in Trump’s Crosshairs
- Joshua Dawe
- Jul 21
- 3 min read
Welcome to this week's market rundown. I’m covering key news, what’s on the economic calendar, how markets have been moving, and what trades I’m tracking right now. Whether you’re trading or just keeping score, here’s what you need to know to stay one step ahead.
Tariff Threats and Tepid Support for Ukraine: Trump’s backing of Ukraine came with a threat to slap 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian goods if peace isn’t reached in 50 days. Ukrainians, used to big talk and little follow-through, didn’t hold their breath.
Qatar Talks for Gaza Ceasefire: Trump sat down with Qatar’s prime minister to talk about the ongoing Gaza ceasefire negotiations. Qatar’s playing host to these delicate discussions backed by the US.
Tariff Wars: EU and Mexico in the Crosshairs: Trump is threatening a 30% tariff on EU goods and has already hit Mexican tomatoes with a 17% duty. The EU is ready to retaliate with tariffs of its own. Trade tensions are heating up fast.
Banks Booming Amid Chaos: Despite all the tariff drama, America’s big banks posted solid earnings. JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon even shifted his tone, praising tax reforms and a strong economy after a gloomy Q1.
Trump vs. Powell: Investors got jittery after rumors swirled that Trump might fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell over a fancy renovation. The dollar dipped, but Trump later walked it back, saying Powell’s job is probably safe. Probably.
Stablecoins Get a Legal Makeover: Trump signed off on the first federal bill regulating stablecoins. It’s a major move to keep America at the top of the crypto game, with strict rules on backing digital dollars with real assets.
Calendar
Previous Week: China’s Q2 GDP growth landed at 5.2% year-on-year, easing slightly from 5.4%. US inflation for June came in at 2.7%, up from 2.4%. Japan’s June inflation rate dipped to 3.3% from 3.5%.
This Coming Week: Fed Chair Powell delivered a speech. The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at around 2.15%.
Previous Week: Big banks reported earnings, with JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs all topping estimates.
This Coming Week: Microsoft reports next week, so it’ll be one to watch closely for a read on Big Tech sentiment.
Tariffs: August 1st deadline.
Market Movement
Equities: It was a strong week across the board for equities, with the EuroStoxx 50 being the notable exception.
Rates: It was a mixed bag in bonds, with the CA10Y climbing over 2% while the SG10Y took a 20% hit.
Forex: Forex action showed broad USD strength across the board. Most notable moves were AUDUSD down 1% and USDJPY up over 1%.
Commodities: Low Sulphur continues to rally on renewed Russia-Ukraine tensions, while other oil products took a hit.
Crypto: Big week for crypto across the board, except for Bitcoin. XRP jumped 25%, Ethereum gained 20%, and Doge popped 17%.
Watchlist
Fed Fund Futures: Traders still pricing in three rate cuts by year-end.
SP500 Index: Flat WoW. Flashing overbought signals with RSI at 83 and a near 2 standard deviation move. Nvidia’s strength keeps the index near all-time highs while the VIX sits low around 16. Shorts are creeping higher, so some hedging at these levels makes sense.
US10Y Yield: Flat on the week after bouncing off its 100-day moving average. The 2s and 10s are moving together, and fund managers keep adding shorts, betting yields have more upside. Credit spreads keep tightening, showing credit markets remain calm.
Dollar Index: Up 0.7% last week. Still looks oversold on the charts, with aggregate futures positioning staying net short but seeing some covering. The dollar mostly moved with US yields.
USDJPY: Up 1.0% on the week. Broke through its 20-day and 50-day moving average, showing fresh upside momentum as big long positions unwind and shorts add.
USDSGD: Up 0.4%. Technicals look deeply oversold, so a bounce could be in the cards. Its regression to the DXY is near decade lows, hinting at catch-up potential if the dollar stays strong.
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